Betting on Thompson Surge as I Pulled the Lever for .....

Don't count your di Blasio chickens yet.

On my short 2 minute walk to the polling booth I was listening to Brian Lehrer and a woman said she changed her mind about di Blasio because of the Wayne Barrett and Slate articles -- they bothered me too.

She was going to Thompson. I detect a late Thompson surge and some wearing away of diBlasio support and will make a rough guess that di Blasio numbers will drop to the mid thirties - say 35-6% and Thompson's will head toward the late 20's. A very competitive run-off I will bet at the power forces push Thompson. Where will Quinn's votes go for instance? Thompson, mostly.

My gut instincts that both Thompson and di Blasio will screw us but if I look at self interest alone -- a) A runoff between them would be lots of fun and b) Better Thompson, the UFT choice, screws us.

But I also feel that diBlasio's electoral constituency would hold him more accountable than Thompson's, so better to have Big Bill rather than little Bill.

However, in the booth I just had to give Sal Albanese a pop, especially since Kevin Boyle my editor at The Wave is so passionate about showing that there is a constituency for guys like him. Since Big Bill will be in the runoff we can go there next time. Or maybe not given how much fun it would be to watch Little Bill tilt to Tisch rather than to Mulgrew.

At any rate, yesterday I raised my problem in who to vote for for Queens Borough President and lo and behold there was dropout Tony Avella, my fave politician, still on the ballot. And so I wasted yet another vote.

But did vote for Scott Stringer who is clearly a hack but Patrick Sullivan influenced me there. Spitzer doesn't seem to be able to win but it would be fun to watch if he did.

Oh, and of course Leticia James who I feel has great potential as a populist politician.

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Breaking: NYPD String Safety Nets Around 52 Broadway in Case Thompson Doesn't Make Runoff

With so much at stake for the gang running the UFT and AFT (Randi) -- but not so much for NY city teachers -- who one would think are their main constituency -- there is fear that bodies will come crashing down from the roof of the UFT headquarters if Bill Thompson doesn't make it into the runoff, though I agree with Reality Based Educator that he probably will (2013 Election: Predictions And Endorsements).

[I interrupt this report to report that Ednotes online just passed 2 million page views since July 2009 when I started using the Google counter].

Just think of it. Can Bill di Blasio really be worse for UFT members than Thompson? Though I also agree with RBE not to trust di Blasio, Thompson is worse (Bill Thompson Hit The Brooklyn Streets Yesterday With Al D'amato Trolling For Votes).
Actually, much worse.

But this past weekend we saw the desperation with Leo Casey whining on twitter about how irresponsible MORE has been in not endorsing a candidate given that this is the most important election in poor Leo's life. We also saw New Action's Halabi tag teaming with his pal Leo in also making a point about MORE's non-endorsement. Yes, if Thompson loses it is all MORE's fault - as if the endorsement by a small caucus in the UFT would actually make a difference. We are not as pretentious as New Action was 4 years ago in endorsing Thompson and making that a big issue in their campaign in the UFT elections. Yawn.

I'm not going to get into the details of why on paper di Blasio seems better for educators and education than Thompson but this is all about power at the top, not about what is good for the rank and file. And for students and parents. So what else is new?

I saw that Thompson's big move is to allow parents to chose a member of the PEP. Gee wiz. Hey Bill, how about allowing parents to choose the entire PEP (other than the 5 borough president choices)?

You can't tell me that a guy supported by D'Amato and Tisch is good for us.

If di Blasio actually cuts into the charter lobby and makes charters pay the damn rent - which I am ready to bet he won't - then that is worth seeing him in office. As RBE points out (Bloomberg Furious He Can't Stop Attacks On His "Legacy), just having a guy win who trashes Bloomberg's legacy brings a smile to my face. But I really think he will turn into another Obama.

And there was that Wayne Barrett piece - What you don't know about Big Bill- Digging deeper into de Blasio's associations.

Scary stuff.

Imagine this scenario: di Blasio wins and screws us and the UFT leadership says "we told you so." As an organizer in the union trying to get people to join MORE, I would much rather have Thompson screw us so we can say "told you so."

By the way, I'm sure you noticed RBE's amazing election coverage and analysis at Perdido Street School blog.

He is holding his nose and voting for diB. I was thinking of going for Sal Albanese but am also thinking that if my vote puts Bill D over the 40% I'd hate to lose that opportunity. Sal was endorsed by The Wave out here (It’s Sal) and they made a good case for that not being a wasted vote. (If the link above doesn't work, you can read the endorsement editorial below the break. -- but here's a sample:

If you’re not crazy about any of the candidates—and admit it, you’re not -- hold on. Say the polls are fairly accurate and Sal will finish far behind. Your vote for Sal still holds value. Your vote will actually signal something to those left standing. Your “Sal” vote will be considered an “undecided” vote and will be sought after in a runoff or the general election.

I actually have mixed feelings about the idea of a runoff with Thompson. I'm thinking of the advantage of keeping that race alive and giving less time for the Lhota dogs to come out in force against dB.

I agree with RBE about Tish James for Public Advocate. She has steadily been moving in the direction of the forces battling ed deform.

I do not agree with his points about not endorsing Stringer though the idea of Spitzer winning (which I think he won't) in office putting burs in everyone's butt. I am voting Stringer out of loyalty to Patrick Sullivan who he appointed to the PEP even if I agree with RBE that he could get away with it given that Patrick was often a lone voice. Still .... Patrick is a Stringer guy and I am going with that.

I have a problem with the Queens borough president race since my guy Tony Avella dropped out. I don't like Valone or Katz, who is  the partner of Curtis Sliwa who makes me gag. And the BP picks a PEP person so it is important but if I had to hold my nose I would go for Katz --- no, I can't do it.

My local Assemblyman, Phil Goldfeder, is a great guy and has made himself a Rockaway fave, so that's a no brainer.

Well, gotta go exercise my voting arm -- those old voting machines are rusty.

Hey, this is Rockaway. We know the deal with being isolated, overlooked, and forgotten about. We know we’re New York’s best kept secret and a hidden gem.

It should come as no surprise then that we identify with Sal Albanese.

Among those running for mayor, Sal Albanese is often forgotten but to us, he’s a hidden gem.

The Wave can’t turn its back on someone just because poll numbers suggest he’s got no shot.

Hear us out. There are two reasons to vote for Sal. The first reason is he earned it. He came here often and demonstrated knowledge about Rockaway-specific issues and that can’t be said of others.

He and Anthony Weiner are the only ones who offered an idea about dealing with crippling flood insurance premiums– the storm no one in public office is preparing for.

Both candidates suggested subsidizing flood insurance with grants but Sal offered a more nuanced suggestion. He said rates should be subsidized until jetties and seawalls and dunes are in place. With hard structures, premiums should come down to a manageable level and then the subsidy could be removed. That’s an idea. It’s not just the usual line we hear from candidates: I’m going to fight for affordable insurance rates. Fight? We get sick of that word. Everyone’s a fighter. Yeah, we get that.

He was here. Often. More than any other candidate. And that matters. You’ve got to see Rockaway with your own two eyes to appreciate both its beauty and its scars from Sandy.

You’ve got to be in Rockaway to see vacant lots where houses stood just 10 months ago; you’ve got to be in Rcckaway to appreciate the damage, the challenges.

You’ve even got to be here to appreciate the pot holes and horrible roads. And you’ve got to be here to appreciate the people.

Sal has been here. He gets it. He’s been fully supportive at rallies for better transportation to Rockaway and has released a full transit plan.

A former high school teacher and a lawyer, Sal’s got a rich background unlike some of the career politicians vying for the job of mayor.

Some might think it’s wasting a vote. Some scoff at voting for someone not registering in the polls. Well, voting for someone just because they look good in the polls is really something to be scoffed at. Sal Albanese has earned our vote. He earned it. That’s what matters. You can be proud to vote for Sal.

And while you might think we’re crazy, there is a method to our madness. Sal deserves the vote on the merits, period. However, there is another way to look at this.

If you’re not crazy about any of the candidates—and admit it, you’re not -- hold on. Say the polls are fairly accurate and Sal will finish far behind. Your vote for Sal still holds value. Your vote will actually signal something to those left standing. Your “Sal” vote will be considered an “undecided” vote and will be sought after in a runoff or the general election. There will be a scramble for the undecided and if Rockaway has enough undecided voters, the remaining candidates will have to pay attention to Rockaway.

You can do your part by voting for Sal Albanese.

That’s our hope. We hope enough people vote for Sal Albanese because he earned it and because it will be telling the others that they still have to earn Rockaway’s support.

Rockaway can be a voting bloc. It would be a great thing if Rockaway tried voting with unity in mind. Vote for Sal Albanese.

PS: When Mayor Bloomberg insisted on allowing the NYC Marathon to go on, Bill de Blasio supported Bloomberg.

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Real Politics: Will They Turn de Blasio into Mark Green and make Lhota King?

If De Blasio wins the runoff and then the nomination, there will be an attempt to "Mark Green" him. But I don't think they will be able to do that easily.

Most interesting would be a run-off with Thompson -- watch the unions battle that one out. But all along some of us have watched the machinations -- ie, Tisch and D'Amato for Thompson - as part of the campaign to get their real guy in -- Lhota -- in an attempt to repeat 2001.

Let's review the 2001 mayoral race that brought Bloomberg to power. Hevesi, the crook, was enthusiastically endorsed by the UFT in August -- I was at that Ex Bd meeting where Randi introduced him with such glowing words. The UFT would not go near Ferrar or Green. So when they made the runoff, the UFT held its nose and endorsed Ferrar. Ooops. Two-time losers. So when Green won the runoff they again held their noses and very reluctantly endorsed Green. Voila: Bloomberg. UFT- 3 time losers, never to go near a mayoral endorsement again until this time.

(Sidenote: I was at an Ex Bd meeting I think back in May or June, 2001 when Randi started to giggle as she said:  Bloomberg wants to stop by and will be here in 10 minutes -- her attitude was so smug. So Bloomberg does show and makes his pitch and everyone is polite. I made sure to give him ed notes on his way out. I really had little idea who he was. I would never suggest the UFT should have endorsed him or sat out the mayoral race.)

So just how much did the UFT leadership's poor political judgement lead to 12 years of hell for educators? I leave you to judge. And how desperate are they now to not be proven wrong once again with their Thompson endorsement? How deaf are they to the outrage of the Tisch connection or the D'Amato support or the growing Thompson scandals?

A perfect example: Randi's attack on de Blasio for his pre-k plan where she disparaged his funding plans as being unrealistic instead of saying: we think your plan is unrealistic but we are on board to make it happen in any way we can. How embarassing that Randi endorsed Thompson BEFORE the Delegate Assembly? And Thompson's waiting in the wings? And the phony explanation? I'm betting that an enormous number of teachers are ignoring the UFT pleas.

Let's examine the current state of the mayoral race as the dynamic changes every day.

A few weeks ago it looked like a Weiner/Quinn runoff. Then it looked like Quinn/Thompson for a brief time. Then came the de Blasio surge, leaving Quinn and Thompson to battle for the last run-off position. Imagine if Thompson doesn't make the run-off. Where does the UFT go? Quinn or de Blasio?

I predict they sit round 2 out and just endorse whoever wins the Dem nom. If Lhota wins (never say never) then the UFT can claim they were only 2 time losers instead of 3.

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Afterburn
I don't trust de Blasio - any more than the others. I would bet a substantial sum that he forgets all about the charters paying rent or many of the other parts of his programs. Watch one day Howard Wolfson stand by his side with Bloomberg's support and praise Bill's "willing to listen to reason." And if he wins and runs for re-election in '17, see who will support him. And watch who he appoints to the PEP and as chancellor. Should be fun.

While I would vote for Sal or Liu-- and still may just to make a statement to the winner that there is support for a more liberal agenda.

RBE has not let up on the reporting, so check all the posts out.
Here are some links:

NY Times Follows Thompson Story Up With De Blasio Story

Yesterday the Times put a front page story out that essentially said Bill Thompson is a crook.

They've done "expose" stories on Quinn, Weiner, and now Thompson, so I figured the de Blasio "expose" was coming soon.

Tonight they're out with it, and if this is all they've got on him, it's not much.

De Blasio's Cozy Relationship With The Real Estate Industry

Dunno why the NY Post and NY Daily News editorial boards are upset at the prospect of a de Blasio mayorality.

As Dana Rubenstein shows in an extensive post at Politicker, de Blasio was very happy to cut deals on the Atlantic Yards mess, the Gowanus Canal sell-out to Toll Brothers, and a Fourth Avenue rezoning for taller buildings that the Bloomberg administration wanted.

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Perdido Street on Thompson: Political Hack And Walking Conflict Of Interest

After a closer look at Thompson's political record and associations, he is no less a crook and a hack than Quinn herself. And to be honest, I'm not so sure he isn't worse than Quinn. .... RBE

Councilman Jumaane Williams explained mayoral hopeful Bill Thompson‘s race relations speech by musing about his poll numbers among black voters. “I think he originally felt that certain segments of the population were going to go with him automatically. He started looking at polls and seeing that wasn’t happening,” he said. “Thompson’s trying to have it both ways without putting any skin in the game.”

Reality-Based Educator nails it. Remember how the UFT first endorsement in 2001 was one Alan Hevesi?

This is so good I am printing it and adding it to my sandwich for lunch.

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Bill Thompson - Political Hack And Walking Conflict Of Interest

With the Anthony Weiner poll plummet made official by yesterday's Quinnipiac poll release (Weiner dropped to fourth in the race; 53% of New Yorkers say he should drop out), I am starting to turn my attention back to the candidate whose policies I can live with who will be most effective at taking on Christine Quinn in a runoff.
The Marist poll from last week and yesterday's Quinnipiac poll release show us that the two candidates with a good chance to make the runoff against Quinn are Bill Thompson, the former NYC comptroller, and Bill de Blasio, the current Public Advocate.

Read it all:  http://perdidostreetschool.blogspot.com/2013/07/bill-thompson-political-hack-and.html

Though many teachers I know favor Liu or even Sal Albanese, the default position will be Thompson or de Blasio, who I don't particularly love either. But if I were voting today that is where my vote would go. Just don't ask me what I think tomorrow.
 

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